In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the chrysler region consumed around 493bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 647bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 81bcm to 99bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Malaysia's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an esti buick m">rc helicopter and car market place mated 6.49%, while its share of production is put at 17%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.43%, with the country accounting for 15.51% of supply.
Preliminary data suggest that the 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.38 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which is expected to have delivered North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averages of around US$79.40/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. The oil market is now in a bullish mood, in spite of the economic uncertainty facing the world in 2011.
Global GDP growth in 2011 should exceed 3%, but is unlikely to match the level seen in 2010. Slower economic expansion in China and Japan is set to undermine a potentially unchanged rate of growth in the US and Eurozone. Oil prices seldom reflect underlying macroeconomic trends, but the case for surging energy demand and spiralling fuel costs is far from convincing. Ample oil inventories and increasing OPEC supply are likely to keep the price of crude in check - and we are sticking with our forecast of an average US$80/bbl for the OPEC basket.
BMI believes that Malaysian real GDP will have increased by 6.4% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.1% forecast for 2010-2015. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 743,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 547,000b/d. Malaysia's gas exports are set to rise from an estimated 38bcm in 2010 to almost 50bcm in 2015, with production climbing from an estimated 70bcm to 85bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a 0.83% decrease in Malaysian oil production, with crude volumes peaking at 750,000b/d in 2014. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 21.42%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 589,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 70bcm in 2010 to a possible 100bcm by 2019/20. With demand growth of 28.57%, this provides an export capability peaking at 59.8bcm in 2019, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Malaysia is now ranked equal sixth with the Philippines in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. Its strong showing reflects the country's fifth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, demonstrating a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, offset by extensive state involvement. The country is just two points behind PNG, but three points ahead of the Philippines. Malaysia ranks 13th, behind Hong Kong, in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively high level of retail site intensity.
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